Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
